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The COVID-19 will lead to a historic economic recession in Central Africa!!!
Central African countries could experience the worst economic recession in their history because of the slowdown in global activities due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
In a work made public in March 2020, the Economic Commission for Africa (CEA) estimated the losses that could be suffered by the members of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS).
Overall, ECCAS will have negative growth of -4,7 % in 2020. All countries are in red. The biggest loss in the area is due to Sao Tome and Principe:-34 % while Burundi could have the minimum loss estimated at-0,4 %.
The biggest losses are the oil and tourism sectors. Sao Tome and Principe with an economy highly dependent on tourism, it is easy to understand why the disaster would be more pronounced in this country.
Based on this work, ECCAS countries can be classified according to the degree of loss and their estimated growth rates for 2020. So we have:
1. Sao Tome and Principe:-34 %
2. Republic of the Congo:-10,6 %
3. Equatorial Guinea:-7,5 %
4. Rwanda : -6,3%
5. Angola :-5,7 %
6. Gabon : -5,0%
7. Chad: 4,8 %
8. Cameroon :-3,1 %
9. Congo DRC:-1,9 %
10. Central African Republic:-0,9 %
11. Burundi : -0,4%
As we can see, the Covid-19 pandemic will force the leaders of ECCAS countries to take historical measures to avoid economic implosion and failure. The goals of these measures would be to (i) stimulate economic activities; (ii) guarantee jobs and income and (ii) limit the number of poor people who may fall into extreme poverty.
To do this, we believe that the coordination of economic (recovery) policies should be THE credo in ECCAS. Indeed, a lack of coordination would cause recovery in one country to further increase the economic recession in other countries. Therefore, it would not be pointless for ECCAS states to implement the Monetary Union which has long been seen as a mirage in the area.
Author: Ulrich D'POLA KAMDEM